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Compute & physical

Hyperscaler server useful lives (10-K estimates)

not yet measurable65/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalisegrade Alaggingrefreshed irregularly: Annual filings; each change is quoted by hand from the 10-K notes.

1What this measures

Estimated useful life of servers and network equipment each hyperscaler states in its 10-K, in years, quoted verbatim: Amazon (a subset cut to five years from 2025), Microsoft (two to six), Alphabet (six), Meta (extended to 5.5 from 2025). The band input is Amazon's, the only one to shorten.

Why it matters. Depreciation is where the capex bet meets the income statement. A lengthening life flatters margins; a shortening one says the hardware is turning over faster than the accountants assumed.

Proxy types
capital_flow
Unit
years
Cadence
annual

2How we track this

  • series sec_filing.amzn.server_useful_life_years.fy
  • series sec_filing.msft.server_useful_life_years.fy
  • series sec_filing.googl.server_useful_life_years.fy
  • series sec_filing.meta.server_useful_life_years.fy

Direction over 2 periods, dead-band 0.40 years; higher = dispersing.

Two annual readings; a change under half a year is rounding. A shorter life means faster hardware turnover and thinner margins for the layer, so shortening reads as dispersing.

Applied to sec_filing.amzn.server_useful_life_years.fy.

3Tracker interpretation

Estimates diverge: Amazon shortened a subset to five years, Meta lengthened to 5.5, Alphabet and Microsoft hold at six. No filer shortened in 2026.

4Evidence

Direction over the last 2 periods; the band is ±0.40 years around the window's first point. Higher reads dispersing.

Latest point
5.00 yearsas of 2025-12-31
amzn
Value the bands apply to
5.00 yearsas of 2025-12-31

4 observations. Hollow points are disputed (see counterevidence). Every point links to its observation.

5Status and reasoning

not yet measurablesince 2026-09-10 · evaluate

First reading. Amazon's FY2025 10-K states a subset of servers and networking equipment moved from six to five years from 1 January 2025; Meta lengthened to 5.5 years, Alphabet holds six and Microsoft states two to six. One annual point per filer, so the direction rule cannot run yet: not yet measurable.

6Timeline notes

7Counterevidence

What cuts against this reading

Ranges rather than points at Microsoft; a subset at Amazon; the estimate says what the filer chooses to assume, not how long the hardware lasts.

8Update history

  1. 2026-09-10unmeasured to not yet measurableconf — → 65 · evaluate

    First reading. Amazon's FY2025 10-K states a subset of servers and networking equipment moved from six to five years from 1 January 2025; Meta lengthened to 5.5 years, Alphabet holds six and Microsoft states two to six. One annual point per filer, so the direction rule cannot run yet: not yet measurable.

    obs:81efc38c

9Confidence

65 / 95 — mixed or hard to operationalise

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; below 50 limited or vague.

10Related